Gitcoin is partnering with Filecoin to introduce an experimental Futarchy add-on for the latest RetroPGF round, which began in September 2024. The collaboration will allow participants to use prediction markets to help determine which projects are most likely to succeed.

The Futarchy system uses prediction markets to gather community insights and allows traders to “bet” on the success of various proposals. These market signals provide badge holders with the power to allocate funding—with data-driven guidance to make more informed decisions. Adding futarchy to the RetroPGF funding process improves decision-making and encourages a more decentralized approach to funding public goods.

In this experiment, prediction markets will run alongside traditional badge holder voting, allowing participants in Filecoin’s ecosystem to engage directly with the process. Traders can place bets on which projects are most likely to thrive, and their predictions will provide valuable insights that help badge holders prioritize high-impact proposals.

The main goal of the experiment is to enable stakeholders to identify promising projects and better avoid funding those with less potential. By using market insights, badge holders can focus on the extremes: the top 10% of projects (“gems”) that are most likely to succeed and the bottom 10% (“ngmi,” or “not gonna make it”) that may not be worth supporting. 

This innovative approach empowers the community by leveraging collective intelligence and data-backed signals to guide funding decisions. Gitcoin and Filecoin hope to create a more impactful, decentralized funding model for public goods, ultimately leading to smarter investments that benefit the broader ecosystem.